Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Stimulus, what stimulus?

Thorstein Veblen is still worried. He's had enough.

Why is everyone arguing about the stimulus? What stimulus?

Thorstein Veblen is trained in the art of math. Watch him work.

The size of the US economy over the next three years is $45 trillion.

US state government budget shortfalls over this time period are $350 billion-plus. Substantial cuts have already been made... Local budgets are also getting the ax. (Philadelphia has a $1billion shortfall over next few years, is cutting... NYC is increasing metro fares... Florida has cut environmental programs and has raised taxes on nursing homes... etc. etc.etc.etc.)

Take away the state and local budget cuts/shortfalls, and we're left with maybe $450 billion left of stimulus over 3-4 years. Divide that by an economy over 3 years worth $45 trillion. Left with an optimistic estimate of a stimulus of 1% of GDP per year.

It's peanuts.

Poor Monty Python's arms have been chopped off, and we're treating it as a mere flesh wound...

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