Sunday, January 18, 2009
Intrade: "Depression Likely"
They define depression as US GDP falling by at least 2.5% in 2009. Interestingly, since the Obama stimulus plan was announced, the contract has gone way up, so that the probability of a "depression" is now about 56%. The price on the "DOW to trade below 7,400" contract has also gone up...
Posted by Thorstein Veblen at 10:29 AM