Thursday, November 26, 2009

The Fed's Economic Projections

Isn't the Fed supposed to have lots of really bright people working for it?

Then why is the Fed's latest unemployment projection (from the minute's released the other day from the meeting on 11/4) for the current quarter: 9.8 to 10.3? The "Central Tendency" which excludes the three highest and lowest projections, was 9.9 to 10.1.

Keep in mind, these are forecasts for the average of the current quarter, but still, whose forecast was 9.8%? We're at 10.2% now. We will likely be at least 10.3% unemployment tomorrow. We would therefore need job growth of at least 250,000 in December to get back to 10.1%, and probably 600,000+ to get to 9.8, or else have lots of people up and leave the labor force (which is more likely).

In other words, the Fed's unemployment projections for the current quarter (made on 11/4) are already a straight-up joke. It doesn't inspire much confidence that the Fed's unemployment projections of a 9.3-9.7% average for Q4 2010 very good either...

Would anybody like to bet, and take the Fed's unemployment number-range for the current quarter? I'll give you 5-to-1 odds...

Just when you thought Macroeconomists could not be any more worthless... They just keep going out of their way to show that they cannot even do simple math yet again. Need another reason to pile on Macroeconomists? The ECB is just as bad as the Fed.

This may be a dramatic conclusion, but to me this just symbolizes the dramatic breakdown of any coherent thought at the Fed, and the majority presence of crazies on the FOMC.

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